The USD became the world's reserve currency after the Second World War with the Bretton Woods Agreement (1944). Anchored to gold, its status was reinforced by the global economic dominance of the United States. But in 1971, Nixon abandoned the gold standard, leaving the dollar to float on confidence in the American economy. In 2000, the USD accounted for 70% of world reserves (Bank for International Settlements, BIS).

Yet cracks have appeared. The 2008 crisis sowed doubts, sanctions against Iran (2010) and Russia (2014) irritated, and the freezing of Russia's USD 300 billion in reserves by 2022 was the last straw. Nations are wondering: what if the USD becomes too risky a weapon?

Several factors, amplified by recent events, are driving de-dollarization.

First, unilateral U.S. sanctions. According to Bloomberg (May 2025), China and Russia now conduct 55% of their trade in yuan, fleeing a dollar perceived as a sword of Damocles.

Then there's the rise of the emerging economies: the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) account for 26% of global GDP (IMF, 2024) and want to have their say.

Add currency volatility: the Fed's rate hikes (5.5% in 2023) have pushed the USD share of reserves down to 58% (BIS, April 2025).

But new developments in 2025 add fuel. Theabsence of gold backing since 1971 makes the dollar vulnerable, a point made by Financial Times (June 2025).US inflation, at 2.5% in May 2025 (Reuters), is eating away at its value.

The US debt, which exceeds 37.5 trillion USD (Financial Times, June 10, 2025), is worrying investors. Moody's even downgraded the outlook for US debt to "negative" in March 2025 (The Edge), signalling a free-fall in quality.

And what about Trump's erratic policies ? His "Liberation Day" tariffs (10-20% on imports, Financial Times, June 8, 2025) have weakened the dollar, sending it plunging to 1.15 USD/EUR (Bloomberg, May 23, 2025). These shocks are pushing countries to diversify their currencies faster than ever.

De-dollarization is no longer a theory: it's a reality. Central banks are filling their vaults withgold, reflecting a growing distrust of the dollar and fiat currencies. According to Bloomberg (June 10, 2025), global central bank gold reserves rose by 483 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025, driven by Russia (24% of reserves, Reuters, April 2025) and China, which added 90 tonnes in May (Financial Times, June 9, 2025).

Moreover, China and Russia barter 55% of their trade in yuan (Bloomberg, May 2025), while India pays for its Iranian oil in rupees.

Alternative systems such as Russia's SPFS (22% of member transactions, Financial Times, June 2025) and China's CIPS (17%) are gradually replacing SWIFT. Even cryptocurrencies are making their presence felt: in Venezuela, Bitcoin covers 6% of transactions (The Edge, May 2025). A silent but very real revolution.

For businesses, it's an earthquake. With 40% of the world's payments still in USD (SWIFT, May 2025), de-dollarization is complicating international transfers.

Exchange rates are becoming more volatile: converting dollars into euros or yuan is more expensive and requires careful planning. SMEs, often dependent on foreign currency transfers, have to juggle with forward contracts to protect themselves - a logistical challenge.

But this transition is also opening doors: China is stepping up trade via the Belt and Road, offering new opportunities for emerging markets. However, transition costs are a heavy burden, especially for smaller players.

The dollar remains king, with 58% of world reserves (BIS, 2025), but its throne is wavering.

Here are three scenarios:

Gradual rebalancing: the USD falls to 50% by 2030, the euro rises to 25%, the yuan to 10%, and gold to 15% (Bloomberg, June 2025). A gentle adjustment, supported by bilateral agreements.

Sudden crisis: A crisis (new sanctions, collapse of confidence) could bring the USD back to 40% by 2027, triggering wild volatility (Reuters, May 2025).

Multipolar refocusing: A system with the euro, yuan anddigital euro (tested in 2025, Financial Times) at 45% for the USD by 2030.

Yes, but with caveats. The depth of US markets and the strength of the US economy support the USD. However, its gigantic debt (USD 37.5 trillion) and recent tax and customs announcements are undermining its credibility. If the dollar loses its status, US inflation could jump to 10% (Goldman Sachs, 2025), making imports unaffordable.

Global companies will have to rethink their international trade payment methods, in the face of unstable exchange rates . An abrupt transition would be chaotic, but a total withdrawal seems unlikely in the short term.

Euro: With 22% of reserves (ECB, 2025) and thedigital euro, it is a serious competitor, strengthened by European stability.

Yuan: At 3%, it is growing thanks to China, but its limited convertibility is holding it back (Bloomberg, May 2025).

Gold and cryptocurrencies: Gold (24% of Russian reserves) and Bitcoin (6% in Venezuela) are gaining ground as safe havens.

BRICS currency: A gold-backed currency, discussed in Kazan (Financial Times, June 2025), remains speculative.

At this stage, the dollar still dominates, but its share will diminish. The most plausible scenario? A gradual rebalancing to 50% by 2030, with the euro and yuan gaining ground. A total collapse is unlikely without a universal alternative, but Trump's policies and US debt could accelerate a multipolar refocusing.

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