The euro is definitely under pressure as the year draws to a close. The elections enabled the USD to strengthen and the EURUSD to break through the 1.0500 threshold. Last Friday, PMI data (European Purchasing Managers' sentiment) fell sharply (from 45 to 43): the difficulties in Europe are not only political, but also economic. This context will reinforce the ECB's decision to lower European rates again, in contrast to the US, which will keep them unchanged for several months yet.

Meanwhile, Russia went on the offensive on Friday, 1) firing an intercontinental ballistic missile into western Ukraine to demonstrate its ability to target far beyond the country, and 2) threatening to target countries arming Ukraine, implying that a world war is within their missile range. These announcements pushed the EURUSD below 1.0330 for the first time in 18 months.

Against this backdrop of great uncertainty, the markets reacted to the geopolitical tensions, propelling Bitcoin to a new all-time high (98,500 USD, +45% since the elections) as if it were a new safe-haven asset, while traditional safe-haven assets remain highly prized: the CHF set an all-time record near 0.9200 and gold topped 2,700 USD an ounce (+25% over 2024).