Between 2019 and 2025, the euro's share of international payments will increase by 62%, from 34.5% to 13%, according to Statista.
Conversely, the US dollar has soared from 45% to 60%, consolidating its supremacy. These upheavals are not without consequences for Europe's SMEs and SMBs: rising costs, squeezed margins, and the need for strategic adaptation.
What forces are driving these changes? How can companies respond? This article analyzes monetary trends, their causes, and their practical implications, highlighting solutions such as Keewe, a platform designed to optimize international payments.
The spectacular erosion of the euro
The euro, once a pillar of world trade, has seen its role collapse. From 34.5% of international payments in 2019, it will represent just 13% in 2025. This 62% drop reflects a loss of competitiveness against the dollar (60%) and lower adoption in new trade corridors.
The dollar's continuing dominance
The US dollar reigns supreme, rising from 45% to 60% in six years. This progression is explained by global dependence on raw materials denominated in USD and by US economic policies. However, cracks are appearing: Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policy, relaunched in 2025, could put the brakes on this dynamic by provoking trade retaliation and pushing some countries towards alternatives.
The rise of emerging currencies
Other currencies are gaining ground, albeit modestly:
- Renminbi (CNY): from 1.2% to 2.7%, driven by Chinese trade expansion and technological advances (5G, AI).
- Japanese yen (JPY): from 4% to 5.4%, supported by Japan's economic stability.
- Pound sterling (GBP): from 4% to 5.1%, benefiting from post-Brexit resilience.
- Canadian dollar (CAD): entry into the top 5 at 2.9%, linked to North American trade.
Recent initiatives and outlook
In Europe, rearmament efforts and investments in technology (green energies, AI) could give the euro renewed strength in the medium term. In China, technological progress and the BRICS agreements are boosting the CNY's potential, which could exceed 3% by 2027 if the trend continues. In addition, emerging countries (Africa, Latin America) are diversifying their trade through agreements in local currencies, reducing their dependence on the USD and EUR.
Geopolitics: a fragmented world
Geopolitics is a major driver of these currency shifts. Sanctions against Russia and Iran have prompted some countries to bypass the dollar, while Trump's tariffs, intensified in 2025, strengthen the USD in the short term but fuel de-dollarization initiatives. The BRICS, for example, are accelerating payments in CNY or rubles.
Divergent monetary policies
Central bank decisions widen the gap between currencies. The Fed keeps interest rates high, attracting capital to the dollar. Conversely, the ECB is juggling between inflation and massive investment in rearmament, weakening the euro in the short term. In China, the People's Bank is adjusting its policy to support the CNY without excessive devaluation.
Regional blocks and technology
Asia, led by China, is promoting the renminbi via trade corridors and technological innovations. In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina are exploring alternatives such as the real or a regional currency. Digitization also plays a key role: instant payments and digital currencies (CBDCs) facilitate the use of local currencies, cutting out traditional intermediaries.
Focus : For European SMEs, this fragmentation complicates international transactions, requiring greater agility and diversification.
The changing face of currency risk
Volatility is intensifying for European companies. With the euro at 13% and the dollar at 60%, single-currency SMEs are facing increased costs:
- Exporters : a French ETI selling to the USA loses competitiveness if its prices are low in euros.
- Importers: raw materials in USD (oil, metals) are becoming more expensive, squeezing margins.
European rearmament and technology initiatives could reverse this trend, but in the short term, uncertainty prevails.
Why diversify your currencies?
Relying solely on the euro is risky. A multi-currency strategy offers tangible advantages:
- Cost reduction: Paying a Chinese supplier in CNY avoids USD-EUR conversion costs.
- Competitiveness: Trading in JPY or GBP can attract customers in Japan or the UK.
- Security: Less exposure to the ups and downs of the EUR/USD.
The rise of the CNY, boosted by Chinese technological advances, is also opening up opportunities in Asia.
Rethinking trade financing
Traditional banks prefer to finance in USD or EUR, often with high charges for exotic currencies. Yet emerging corridors (Africa, Southeast Asia) demand greater flexibility. Keewe meets this need by offering payments in CNY, CAD or other currencies at no extra cost, with total transparency. For example, an SME importing electronic components from China saves 2% on each transaction thanks to Keewe.
Best practices for SMEs
Here are three concrete actions:
1. Currency hedging: Use tools such as forwards or options to fix rates, available via specialist FX management platforms.
2. Modern tools: Keewe optimizes your conversions in real time, even for emerging currencies.
3. Local payments : Use your partners' currencies to reduce costs and strengthen business relationships.
The evolution of currencies in international trade is not simply a cyclical phenomenon: it's a structural transformation that is redefining the rules of the game for European companies.
- The weakening of the euro is forcing SMEs to rethink their foreign exchange risk management and anticipate higher costs on their foreign currency payments.
- The dollar's hegemony is being called into question, which means we need to keep a close eye on American political and monetary decisions.
- The rise of the yuan and regional blocs offers new opportunities, but also challenges in terms of payment and FX hedging.
What strategy should you adopt?
- Diversify your currencies: stop relying solely on the euro or the dollar to secure your transactions.
- Optimize FX payments: Compare offers, avoid hidden margins and use appropriate hedging solutions.
- Anticipate fluctuations: Rely on partners able to offer visibility and tools to manage currency risk.
At Keewe, we support companies in the intelligent management of their international payments, with competitive rates and full transparency on FX costs.
In a world of rapidly changing currencies, it's time to adopt a strategic approach to securing your payments and optimizing your international competitiveness.
Find out how Keewe can turn your challenges into opportunities.