The euro fell below 1.0500 last Thursday with a low point of 1.0496, its lowest level since October 2023. Under pressure from a strong dollar after Donald Trump's election victory in the United States.

Investors are concerned about the possible tariffs suggested by D. Trump, which could harm European exports, particularly in the automotive sector.

D. Trump warned that the euro bloc would pay a heavy price if it didn't buy enough American products, heightening fears of a possible trade conflict. The euro is also under pressure from political uncertainty in Germany, where early elections are scheduled for January 23 following the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government.

At the same time, markets have adjusted their expectations of an ECB rate cut, now forecasting a 25 bps cut in December. This will accentuate the strategic gap with the Federal Reserve, which is expected to halt its rate cuts as early as December.

At the same time, the markets celebrated Donald Trump's ascension to the presidency, with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high ($93,000, +33% since the election), in the wake of announcements in favor of tax-free cryptocurrencies. While safe-haven assets remain highly prized, with the CHF back below 0.9350 and gold above $2,500 an ounce (+20% over 2024).