In the United States, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was revised up to 70.5 in October 2024 from 68.9, marking a third consecutive month of increases and reaching its highest level in 6 months.

The US elections in November are weighing heavily on consumer expectations.

The race for the presidency has tightened, with only 57% (63% last month) expecting Mrs. Harris to win.

Even if more and more voters consider that a D. Trump election would be better for the economy.

In Europe, inflation expectations over the next 12 months in the Eurozone fell slightly to 2.4% in September 2024, the lowest level since September 2021, from 2.7% in August.

At the same time, inflation expectations 3 years ahead also fell slightly, by 0.2 percentage points to 2.1%, the lowest level since February 2022.

These latest figures argue in favor of further rate cuts at the end of the year, perhaps by 25 bps in November and 25 bps in December. While the Federal Reserve paused in October.

The EURUSD should continue to be under pressure, 1.0770 at last week's low, until the elections have given us a new US President.

The trend remains downward for the Euro, which is not benefiting from positive economic and political data, and is suffering from the war in Ukraine, which is impacting European states more than the United States.