Another week brings us closer to the US elections, which remain an extreme catalyst for the EURUSD 2025 version. Meanwhile, the economy is holding up, despite the rate-cutting cycle launched by the Federal Reserve in mid-September. Indeed, JP Morgan believes that we are not on the verge of a US recession.

September's NFP figures confirm this, with +154,000 jobs created, against a consensus of +140,000, while the unemployment rate fell by -0.1%. The EURUSD therefore broke through the psychological threshold of 1.10, after revisiting a very generous 1.12 for a Europe that is very much in turmoil.

All eyes are on the decisions of the new French government, which must act on its debt. While in Germany, economic recovery is slow in coming, as shown by the German manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers' confidence), which fell again in September.

Against this backdrop, all equity markets are in good shape, perched on their highest levels since the summer (CAC 40 +2% over the month, US +4%). Nevertheless, there are signs of caution, with 2 strong safe-havens at all-time highs. Gold is at USD 2,665 per ounce, while the Swiss franc is back below 0.94 against the euro.