Today, Monday January 20, 2025, Donald TRUMP will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. The world is awaiting the announcement of his 1st actions. One of these actions was supposed to be a rapid increase in tariff barriers: in the end, this increase is likely to be gradual, as the future government fears a bullish impact on inflation, which the Federal Reserve has been fighting for 2 years.

Since the elections, the USD has strengthened by 6%, fuelled by inflation that continues to be supported by an economy that is not weakening (256,000 jobs created in December, compared with 160,000 expected by analysts) and interest rates that will no doubt have been lowered a little early in the USA.

Faced with these economic records in the USA, Europe is still suffering from political uncertainties in France and Germany, an economy that is struggling to rebound, and now fears of rising US customs pressure. The euro thus hit a 2-year low of 1.0180 before returning to 1.0300. We'll be following Donald TRUMP's announcements to find out how the EUR can withstand a return below parity at the beginning of 2025, and will give you a summary in our next edition.