In this first week of December, the markets are trying to digest a very busy November: Donald TRUMP's victory, the French government on the verge of being overthrown, German elections due in February and the EUROzone economy continuing to suffer. While we anticipate stable rates for several months in the US, the ECB is forecasting a further 25 bps cut this week, with the temptation of a 50 bps cut resurfacing.

Against this backdrop, the EURUSD touched 1.0330 at the end of November before stabilizing above 1.0500, as we await next Thursday's ECB meeting for its final decision of 2024. The trend remains heavy for the EURO, which could find itself back below 1.0300 if the ECB decides to cut rates more drastically to support the economy.

Other currencies are in the spotlight: the Japanese yen, after hitting an all-time low of 175 in July 2024, is back at a 12-month low below 160, following rumours of a rate hike in December or January in response to inflation which is ceasing to fall. The Swiss franc continues to play the role of safe-haven asset, with a historic incursion below 0.9300, a sign of obvious geopolitical tensions on the Eastern front. Finally, sterling continues to strengthen, confirming its fall below 0.8300, an important psychological threshold for a currency that had weakened to 0.8700 in early 2024.