The EURUSD weakened to 1.0907 today, extending its downtrend to a 2-month low.

Indeed, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the 2% threshold in September, while PMI data highlighted a contraction in overall economic activity in Europe.

As a result, the ECB is set to extend its downward cycle with a 25 bps rate cut next week.

The Euro was also put under pressure by persistent budgetary concerns in France, raising credit risks for the bloc's second-largest economy and increasing doubts about the country's appetite for debt.

In the United States, the latest unemployment figures for September and the latest job creations are showing no sign of abating, or even increasing.

This week, it was the inflation figures that were expected. Inflation up again, from 2.3% to 2.4% over a sliding 12-month period.

The markets were looking for clues to anticipate the Federal Reserve's next decisions. Its intervention should therefore be less aggressive than in September (25 bps vs. 50 bps).

These latest movements in the EURUSD and the latest signs of rising volatility can also be attributed to the approaching US elections.

Indeed, every election year sees the main volatility index (VIX) rise by 25% between July and November.

Between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (close to Biden in policy terms), investors aren't worried about major post-election tensions.

However, a new trend for the EURUSD can be expected as early as December for 2025.

Short-term forecasts (i.e. less than 6 months ahead) point to a EURUSD that remains weak.

Finally, the multiple uncertainties (economic, political and geopolitical) are clearly reflected in the strong safe-havens. At USD 2,625 an ounce, gold is simply at its all-time high and shows no signs of weakening. As for the Swiss franc, back below 0.9360, it too marks a period of great uncertainty.