The economic and financial decisions and figures released by the main central banks over the past 2 weeks have had unexpected effects on the EUR/USD pair. Last week, the Federal Reserve did cut rates, for the first time since 2020, by 50 bps in one fell swoop, but this did not cause the USD to falter. This week, Chinese measures to stimulate consumption and support the real estate market have brought enormous euphoria to the equity markets, which are back at their pre-summer highs, driven by luxury stocks which are regaining their energy. For many investors, there is still a long way to go for a China whose ills run deep, but indicators such as new housing starts give cause for hope.

It is in this context of economic calm that the USD would normally tend to soften and push the EURUSD above 1.12. But we sense that this movement is still fragile, as shown by the latest German figures (PMI, large buyers' index), which were very disappointing this week.

The EURUSD remains in a 1.1010 / 1.1250 tunnel (currently 1.1150), the key to which has yet to be found, either on the upside or the downside.

The US elections in November should change all that.